Looking ahead, mid-year 2026 renewals are expected to face more complex conditions globally. Upward pricing pressure across marine, energy and political violence is anticipated as the full impact of the Hormuz crisis is absorbed, and reinsurers reassess aggregation, event definition and Middle East exposure in their specialty portfolios.
London:Reinsurance renewals at 1 April showed a continuation of the softening trend observed at 1 January, according to Howden Re, a global insurance intermediary.
Risk-adjusted property-catastrophe rates-on-line returned to levels last seen in the early 2020s even as geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East drove acute stress across multiple specialty lines globally.
For the broader reinsurance market, the 1 April renewals reinforce that reinsurer balance sheets remain robust and that appetite for well-structured programmes remains strong, said Howden Re.
The orderly completion of the renewal, with no structural disruption, disciplined capacity and cedent-friendly pricing outcomes, is testament to the underlying health of the market even in a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
However, looking ahead, mid-year 2026 renewals are expected to face more complex conditions globally. Upward pricing pressure across marine, energy and political violence is anticipated as the full impact of the Hormuz crisis is absorbed, and reinsurers reassess aggregation, event definition and Middle East exposure in their specialty portfolios.
For property-catastrophe lines, the direction of travel will depend heavily on loss activity in the first half of the year, and on how the macro consequences of energy pricing, inflationary pressure, interest rate trajectory and capital market volatility develop over the coming months.
Japan property-catastrophe market: softening persists
Catastrophe excess-of-loss programmes in Japan saw risk-adjusted price reductions of up to 20% (point estimate: 16%), reflecting both benign global property-catastrophe market conditions and another low catastrophe loss year in Japan. Within proportional business, commissions on property surplus and earthquake quota share treaties increased by 2–5 percentage points, with the upper end of the range most commonly achieved on earthquake quota share placements.
“Japan rates are now broadly back to early twenties levels,” said Andy Souter, Head of Asia Pacific, Howden Re. “Strong reinsurer appetite, improving underlying performance, and a lack of major loss activity have all contributed to cedent-friendly outcomes at this renewal.”
Reinsurers largely maintained a disciplined approach aimed at protecting established positions in Japan, although selective capacity providers continued to seek opportunities to expand their shares. Overall, the balance of supply and demand remained broadly consistent with the previous year; programme structures were largely unchanged from expiring terms, with only limited instances of additional purchases or structural adjustments.
Middle East turbulence: no direct impact at 1 April, but macro risks warrant monitoring
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets in late February 2026 and Iran’s subsequent declaration of closure, did not directly affect the property-catastrophe renewal at 1 April.
The dislocation is currently mainly concentrated in the specialty market: in marine war risk, energy and political violence lines, with capacity repricing at several multiples of pre-conflict levels.
Howden Re nevertheless cautions that the macro transmission channel from the Middle East crisis carries implications that extend beyond the directly impacted specialty lines, and which the broader reinsurance market must monitor as the year progresses.
“This renewal was completed in a largely benign property-catastrophe environment, insulated from the immediate disruption in the Gulf,” said David Flandro, Head of Industry Analysis and Strategic Advisory at Howden Re. “That said, a sustained energy supply shock raises the risk of renewed inflationary pressure and higher interest rates, dynamics that have historically affected reinsurance capital and pricing across all lines, not just those directly exposed to the conflict.”
“The reinsurance market remains well capitalised and engaged,” added Souter. “Technical discipline, transparency and active monitoring are essential as we move into what is shaping up to be a more complex mid-year environment,”he said.