New Delhi:
India's revival of economic activity is expected to be "unabated", despite a rise in coronavirus infections in many areas and 2022 growth projections might not need to be cut, the central bank chief on Thursday.
Though the surge is a matter of concern, vaccines are available, lockdowns are less stringent and preparations are better than when the pandemic began last year, said Shaktikanta Das, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
"Our preliminary analysis shows that the growth rate next year, that is, at 10.5%, which we had given, would not require a downward revision," Das told an economics meeting in New Delhi.
India added 53,476 infections on Wednesday, in its highest daily rise since Oct. 23, health ministry data showed. It tally of 11.8 million infections ranks third worldwide, after Brazil and the United States.
A report by the State Bank of India (SBI) said the current trend is showing a a second wave" which may last up to 100 days, when counted from February 15, it said.Based on trends till March 23, the total number of coronavirus cases in India in the second wave is expected to be around 25 lakh, the forecast said.
Focusing on the economic indicators, the SBI report said the business activity index, based on high frequency indicators, has declined in the last week, adding that the impact of the lockdown or restrictions imposed by certain states might become visible next month.
The report authored by Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser, SBI, states that lockdowns have not resulted in controlling the spread of infection. "Increasing the speed of vaccination is the only way to win the battle against Covid-19 pandemic. Injection to infection ratio shows Israel, UK and Chile are doing better than India. However, the pace of vaccination in India is much higher. So far India has given 50.8 million shots in a span of 67 days, or 790,000 shots per day."
"Considering the number of days from the current level of daily new cases to the peak level during the first wave, India might reach the peak in the second half of April," it said.