Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide today launched its  COVID-19 Projection Tool .


This interactive tool,powered by AIR’s pandemic modeling data, provides COVID-19 case and death projections worldwide for the next four weeks and the data will be updated on a daily basis to project one day further into the future. The modeled projections of the pandemic are available globally at a country level and the outputs consider many variations in data availability and reliability, including underreporting.


The company said its Verisk COVID-19 Projection Tool, designed with AIR’s pandemic modeling data, will provide COVID-19 case and death projections globally over a period of weeks. The target audience: life/health insurers, governments, businesses and communities.


“We’re providing this complimentary tool to give communities, businesses, governments, and insurers a better understanding of what the near future of the COVID-19 pandemic could look like,” said Doug Fullam, director of life/health modeling at AIR Worldwide. “Additionally, we are making this information publicly available as we feel it’s imperative to leverage our strengths as a trusted data steward to provide services that benefit the greater good.”


The projection tool leverages data from an AIR Worldwide catastrophe model. Catastrophe models are useful to understand the impact of low-frequency, high-severity events such as pandemics where historical data is limited. The modeled projections provided in the COVID-19 Projection Tool account for the effectiveness of containment measures, including the impact of social distancing, isolation, quarantining, and other mitigation factors.


The scenarios provided in the projections tool give the means to help understand how effective these containment measures are at mitigating the spread of the disease.