An El Nino weather effect is likely to develop soon and influence rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September, M Ravichandran, secretary in the earth sciences ministry
New Delhi:The India Meteorological Department announced on Friday monsoon rains, hindered by an El Nino are likely to fall below average in 2026 for the first time in three years, stoking concern over farm output and growth as it battles inflation caused by the Iran war.
The lifeblood of a nearly $4-trillion economy that is the third largest in Asia, the monsoon brings almost 70 per cent of the rains needed to water farms and refill aquifers and reservoirs.
The monsoon is expected to reach 90 per cent of the long-period average this year, said M Ravichandran, a secretary in the earth sciences ministry.
An El Nino weather effect is likely to develop soon and influence rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September, he added.
The India Meteorological Department defines normal rainfall as being between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.
The South Asian nation is forecast to receive below-average rainfall in June, standing at less than 92 per cent of the long-period average, Ravichandran said.
The El Nino is caused when ocean temperatures exceed normal in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically bringing hot and dry weather to Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.
India has received below-average rainfall during most previous El Nino years, sometimes leading to severe droughts that destroyed crops and forced curbs on grain exports.
The long-period average (LPA) of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm.
LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period of time, typically 30 to 50 years.
While the Northeast is likely to witness normal rainfall this monsoon season, the remaining parts of the country may see below normal rainfall, the weather office said.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said in a statement, “The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be below normal (less than 94 pc of LPA).” The average rainfall for the country as a whole in June is most likely to be below normal — less than 92 pc of the LPA, he said.
If the monsoon season sees less than 90 pc of LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as ‘deficient’. Speaking about the monsoon’s onset over Kerala, Mohapatra said it is expected to happen in the next seven days.
Typically, Kerala witnesses the onset of southwest monsoon around June 1, which marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon season in the country.
The IMD made the observations during its second forecast for the southwest monsoon. On April 13, the weather office had said that India might witness 92 per cent of LPA rainfall this monsoon season.
On Friday, the IMD also said that El Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September.
Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. The emergence of El Nino conditions leads to less monsoon rainfall in the country.
The weather department also highlighted that in June, above normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country.
“During June, above normal heatwave days are expected over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh and isolated regions of Maharashtra,” Mohapatra said.
He added that below-normal heatwave days are likely over Rajasthan and Jharkhand.
Agencies