Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Science & Technology, Earth Sciences,said India has witnessed nearly 40 per cent improvement in forecast accuracy for severe weather events during the recent decade compared to the previous decade. He added that cyclone track, intensity and landfall forecasts for 72 hours have improved by nearly 30 to 35 per cent during the last five years, while seasonal forecast errors have reduced significantly.
New Delhi:Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Science & Technology, Earth Sciences, today launched two advanced weather forecast products developed under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), aimed at delivering hyper-local, impact-based and AI-driven weather services across the country.
The two products launched today include, introduction of the first ever Artificial Intelligence (AI) driven system by India Metrological Department (IMD) in the form of AI-enabled “Forecast of Monsoon Advance over Different Parts of the Country” and a “High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh” as a pilot service.
The systems have been developed jointly by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).
Singh said India’s weather forecasting capabilities have witnessed a major transformation during the last decade, with technology, data integration and advanced modelling significantly improving forecast accuracy and public trust in IMD services.
He said IMD has today become an integral component of governance, disaster preparedness, agriculture planning and everyday public decision-making.
The Minister said the newly launched systems mark a major shift from conventional weather forecasting towards impact-based and decision-support forecasting, capable of providing precise, location-specific and actionable information to farmers, administrators, disaster managers and citizens.
Referring to the rapid modernization of India’s weather infrastructure, Dr. Jitendra Singh said the country had barely 16 to 17 Doppler Weather Radars nearly a decade ago, while the number has now increased to around 50, with another 50 planned under Mission Mausam.
He said this expansion of observational networks, automatic weather stations, high-performance computing systems and digital dissemination platforms has substantially improved forecasting capability and early warning systems across the country.
Singh said the AI-enabled monsoon advance forecasting system will provide probabilistic forecasts of monsoon progression every Wednesday up to four weeks in advance. The product has been designed to support farmers across 16 States and more than 3,000 sub-districts through the dissemination framework of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare.
He said the system combines AI-based forecasting models, extended range prediction systems and statistical techniques to provide operationally useful forecasts for agricultural planning and preparedness.
The Minister said the second product, High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh, has been developed as a pilot service to generate rainfall forecasts at 1-km spatial resolution up to 10 days in advance. The system uses advanced AI-driven downscaling techniques and integrates data from Automatic Rain Gauges (ARGs), Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs), Doppler Weather Radars and satellite-based rainfall datasets.
Singh said the initiative would be particularly useful for agriculture, water resources, renewable energy, urban planning, disaster management and infrastructure sectors. He said farmers would now be able to take more informed decisions relating to sowing, irrigation, crop protection and harvest planning with far greater local precision.
The Minister said India has witnessed nearly 40 per cent improvement in forecast accuracy for severe weather events during the recent decade compared to the previous decade. He added that cyclone track, intensity and landfall forecasts for 72 hours have improved by nearly 30 to 35 per cent during the last five years, while seasonal forecast errors have reduced significantly.
Singh commented changing climate patterns and increasing extreme weather events have made precise and timely forecasting more important than ever before. Referring to recent instances of erratic weather conditions, he said India now requires forecasting systems that are not only scientifically advanced but also capable of supporting real-time administrative and public decision-making.
Singh said weather advisories and early warnings are now being disseminated through multiple channels including mobile applications, SMS alerts, WhatsApp, Kisan portals, television and other digital platforms to ensure wider public outreach and last-mile connectivity. He added that timely compliance with weather advisories by local administrations and stakeholders is equally important for minimizing damage during extreme weather events.