“According to our modelled peak-loss scenario, insured losses could even climb to about USD 320 billion in 2026. As exposure keeps building, the upward trend in insured losses is structural and it is critical to identify the risk drivers behind this to manage and reduce risks before losses occur”Balz Grollimund, Head Catastrophe Perils, Swiss Re
Global economic losses from natural catastrophes were USD 220 billion in 2025, about 49% of which were insured – the highest share on sigma records and a clear indication that the insurance industry is playing its part in navigating global protection gaps
Zurich:Secondary perils dominated natural catastrophe headlines in 2025.
The LA wildfires generated record-breaking combined insured losses of around USD 40 billion. Losses from severe convective storms (SCS) remained elevated with USD 51 billion of losses.
2025 was also notable due to the absence of a major US hurricane landfall. With long-term global insurance losses from natural catastrophes continuing to follow the 5–7% annual growth rate, sustained adaptation and risk mitigation are instrumental to maintain long-term insurability and reduce protection gaps.:
Balz Grollimund, Head Catastrophe Perils, said, “The below-trend natural catastrophe losses seen in 2025 are the result of favourable variability rather than any easing of underlying risk. If losses return to normal long-term levels, they would total USD 148 billion in 2026. According to our modelled peak-loss scenario, insured losses could even climb to about USD 320 billion in 2026. As exposure keeps building, the upward trend in insured losses is structural and it is critical to identify the risk drivers behind this to manage and reduce risks before losses occur.”
Urs Baertschi, CEO Property & Casualty Reinsurance,commented, “A peak loss scenario year could be more than double the recent annual insured natural catastrophe losses and exceed USD 300 billion. Further risk awareness, adaptation and mitigation, alongside sufficient insurance and reinsurance, play vital roles in societal resilience. We protect against peak risks by absorbing low-frequency, high-severity events that can quickly turn a quiet year into a record loss year.”
At USD 107 billion in 2025, global insured losses were below the long-term natural catastrophe loss trend yet still elevated due to a high frequency of events impacting densely built, high-value areas.
With combined insured losses of USD 40 billion, the LA wildfires represent the largest insured wildfire loss event on sigma records. 2025 was the third-costliest year on record for SCS – including hailstorms and damaging winds, after 2023 and 2024 (in 2025 prices) – adding USD 51 billion of insured losses globally.
Meanwhile, global flood-related insured losses were well below average in 2025 – at USD 3.4 billion compared to a USD 15.4 billion previous five-year average.
Loss potential rising as more vulnerable assets meet hazard shifts
According to sigma insured loss data, between 1970 and 2025, exposure growth explains more than 80% of the long-term global increase in global weather-related insured losses.
In North America, growth is driven mainly by wildfire and SCS, with wildfire insured losses growing at an annual rate of 14%.
In Europe, over half of insured loss growth is due to SCS, which are growing at an estimated annual growth rate of 10%. In Asia, secondary-peril growth is dominated by floods, while in Oceania/Australia it is more evenly split across SCS and floods, with smaller wildfire impact.
Tropical cyclones remain the largest contributor to the overall long-term annual average level of losses, while SCS are the single largest driver of historical insured loss growth (38% contribution). Wildfires, despite highest growth rates, contribute about 20%, due to lower historical loss levels. Floods account for roughly 10% of global insured loss growth.
However, in some cases, exposure alone no longer explains the speed of loss growth with hazard intensification and evolving vulnerability becoming increasingly material in certain regions and perils.
In North America, the lengthening of fire seasons and long-term changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are further compounding the loss threat that fires present. In Europe, where SCS insured losses are growing fastest, less than half of the observed increase can be explained by exposure growth alone. This points to additional drivers such as changing storm characteristics and shifting vulnerability.
USD 220 billion catastrophe losses in 2025 underscore protection gap concerns
Global economic losses from natural catastrophes were USD 220 billion in 2025, about 49% of which were insured – the highest share on sigma records and a clear indication that the insurance industry is playing its part in navigating global protection gaps.
However, protection gaps remain especially wide in emerging economies, where 80–90% of catastrophe losses are typically not covered by insurance, underscoring the need to pair stronger adaptation and risk management with broader, more accessible insurance coverage.
Jérôme Jean Haegeli, Head Swiss Re Institute and Group Chief Economist, said: “Most long-term loss growth comes from a simple reality: more valuable property is being built in harm’s way, and rebuilding costs have risen. At the same time, sigma analysis suggests that for some perils and regions, hazards and vulnerability are evolving faster than exposure alone would imply. As such, sustained and well-designed adaptation and risk mitigation measures are increasingly decisive to keep insurance viable and affordable – and to reduce the global protection gap represented by underinsurance.”