The IMD in April forecast above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2025 monsoon season, ruling out the possibility of El Nino conditions, which are associated with below-normal rainfall in the Indian subcontinent
New Delhi:The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on Saturday, marking its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009 when it began on May 23, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
Normally, the southwest monsoon makes its onset over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15.
The monsoon, the lifeblood of the country’s $4 trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain that India needs to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs. Nearly half of India’s farmland, without any irrigation cover, depends on the annual June-September rains to grow a number of crops.
The monsoon has covered Kerala and parts of neighbouring Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, as well as parts of the northeastern state of Mizoram, the IMD said.
Conditions are favourable for the monsoon’s further spread into Goa, parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, the northeastern states, West Bengal, and the remaining parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu over the next 2 to 3 days.
The southwest monsoon is likely to advance to Maharashtra soon, as the climatic conditions are favourable for the next two to three days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.
The southwest monsoon hit Kerala during the day, marking its earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it reached the southern state on May 23.
Talking to reporters, Dr Shubhangi Bhute, head of the Regional Meteorological Centre in Mumbai, said, “The conditions are favourable for the advancement of the southwest monsoon, which has already reached the Kerala coast almost a week ahead of its normal onset date of June 1.”
Surplus pre-monsoon rainfall and an early monsoon onset will help farmers, especially in the southern and central states, to sow summer crops earlier than usual, said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India, a Mumbai-based brokerage.
“Abundant soil moisture and early sowing could potentially boost crop yields,” Bansod said.
Last year, the monsoon reached the coast of Kerala on May 30, and overall summer rains were the highest since 2020, supporting recovery from a drought in 2023.
The department defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.
The monsoon set in over the southern state on May 30 last year; June 8 in 2023; May 29 in 2022; June 3 in 2021; June 1 in 2020; June 8 in 2019; and May 29 in 2018, IMD data showed.
According to meteorologists, there is no direct relationship between the onset date and the total rainfall over the country during the season.
The monsoon arriving early or late in Kerala does not mean it will cover other parts of the country accordingly. It is characterised by large-scale variabilities and global, regional and local features, an official said.
The IMD in April forecast above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2025 monsoon season, ruling out the possibility of El Nino conditions, which are associated with below-normal rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.