Nearly half of India’s farmland, without irrigation, depends on the annual June-September rains. Regular rains during the monsoon season will also bring relief from the searing heat wave that has seen maximum temperatures cross 50 degrees Celsius (122°F) in some parts of the north and west of the country
Mumbai: Monsoon rains hit India’s southernmost Kerala coast a few days earlier than expected on Thursday, the national weather office said, boosting prospects for bumper harvests that could spur farm and economic growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
Summer rains usually begin to lash coastal Kerala state around June 1 and spread across the whole country by mid-July, triggering the planting of crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans and sugarcane.
The monsoon, the lifeblood of the country’s nearly $3.5 trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain that India needs to water farms and recharge reservoirs and aquifers.
Nearly half of India’s farmland, without irrigation, depends on the annual June-September rains. Regular rains during the monsoon season will also bring relief from the searing heat wave that has seen maximum temperatures cross 50 degrees Celsius (122°F) in some parts of the north and west of the country.
India is likely to receive an average amount of rain in June, although maximum temperatures in the month are likely to remain above normal, according to the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD). This year’s monsoon rains are expected to be 106% of the long-term average.
According to Crisil report, healthy rains could bolster rural demand, which showed signs of revival after being impacted in the previous fiscal year. Additionally, robust crop output might tame food inflation, creating policy room for potential interest rate cuts, as non-food inflation remains low.
The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season. Below-average rains in 2023 depleted reservoir levels and hit food production. The government responded by imposing curbs on exports of rice, wheat, sugar and onions.
Resuming exports depends on how quickly production recovers in 2024, which is not possible without good monsoon rainfall. India is the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugar. Plentiful rains could also help to bring down food inflation, which has remained above the central bank’s comfort level.
The La Nina weather phenomenon, which increases rainfall in India, is expected to set in during July and September.
Timely and well-distributed rains are crucial for reviving agricultural incomes and controlling food inflation, which has been hovering above 8 per cent for the past six months.
The IMD’s update indicates possible concerns for India’s east and northeastern regions, which may receive below-normal rainfall. In contrast, northwest India is likely to experience normal rains, with central India and the southern peninsula expecting above-normal precipitation.
Skymet’s granular forecast highlights a risk of deficient rains in Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal during July and August, while the northeast might see less than normal rains in the early season. The south, west, and northwest regions, however, are expected to receive good rainfall.
June’s normal rains are crucial for ploughing and sowing, but above-normal temperatures predicted for northwest and central India could pose challenges. High temperatures may impact labor availability and reservoir levels, already 24 per cent below capacity. July and August rains are vital for sowing activities.
Any deviation from normal could affect crop yields, especially in areas that faced deficits last year, such as Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, and Odisha.
Crops like rice, tur, and coarse cereals, which saw significant inflation last year due to uneven rains, require close monitoring.
Last year’s uneven monsoon distribution despite overall normal rainfall impacted many crops. Regions facing a second consecutive year of deficit rains could suffer significantly.
The CRISIL Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter (DRIP) index will be used to assess the monsoon’s impact, particularly on irrigation-vulnerable states and crops. April and May have already experienced more heatwaves than usual, with June expected to follow suit. While this year’s heatwave is outside the major crop seasons, it could affect summer vegetables.
Farmers might mitigate this by adjusting cropping patterns or growing heat-resistant crops like millets.