Pushpendra Johari, senior vice president, sustainability, RMSI
“There’s some progress in the case of GLOF, with studies emerging and consultations sought from experts like in the case of Nepal. ADB study for Bhutan and Nepal will include climate and disaster risk assessment and designing a multi-hazard early warning system,” Pushpendra Johari, senior vice president, sustainability, RMSI, a Delhi based international catastrophic modeling firm
Manila/New Delhi:
Though, the global insurance industry is eagerly waiting to see the outcome of claims by state-owned Sikkim Urja, whose Rs 12,000 crore 1.2 GW Teesta III hydropower project got completely washed away by glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), Manila based Asian Development Bank has now commissioned a $1.70 million study that will help understanding the phenomena of GLOF in Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region from climate and disaster risk assessment stand point and designing an appropriate multi-hazard early warning system for it.
Focusing on two Himalayan countries,Bhutan and Nepal, through this study , ADB will undertake deep analysis of multi-hazard risks which include landslides, earthquakes, and floods—including from glacier lake outbursts—and vulnerabilities, which help strengthening the two governments’ capacities to conduct risk assessments in priority river basins.
“These assessments will be used to develop early warning systems and risk management options for future infrastructure development, said the ADB adding that the HKH region, a critical water tower, supports the livelihoods of more than a billion of people across Asia,” said the ADB.
`There’s some progress in the case of GLOF, with studies emerging and consultations sought from experts like in the case of Nepal. ADB study for Bhutan and Nepal will include climate and disaster risk assessment and designing a multi-hazard early warning system,” said Pushpendra Johari, senior vice president, sustainability, RMSI, a Delhi based international catastrophic modeling firm.
RMSI is the only disaster agency in Asia Pacific(APAC) to have developed proprietary models for India for all three major perils, including earthquake, cyclone, and flood, deriving analytics from the forecasting tool-
In October 2023, a GLOF in Sikkim, India destroyed the 1.2 GW Teesta III hydropower project, which was insured for ₹11,400 crore by a consortium of insurers led by IFFCO-Tokio General Insurance.
Global reinsurers and state-owned GIC Re have already said they could only pay up to ₹500 crore of claims, as reinsurers have capped their liability at that sum for GLOFs.
Experts worldwide also recognize the Sikkim floods as a GLOF event.
GLOFs occur when the dam or moraine holding a glacial lake back fails, releasing a substantial volume of water downstream. Glacial lakes, like the South Lhonak Lake, are large bodies of water that sit in front of, on top of, or beneath a melting glacier. As they grow larger, they become more dangerous because glacial lakes are mostly dammed by unstable ice or sediment composed of loose rock and debris.
Home to the largest ice reserves outside of the polar regions, the HKH feed 10 major rivers which sustain the livelihoods of 240 million people in the mountains and more than 1.6 billion people downstream, said the ADB.
The region is warming faster than the global average and if global temperature rises hit 3°C, 75% of glaciers in Bhutan and Nepal could melt by the end of this century. That would place unprecedented stress on access to water, threaten food and energy security, and result in significant biodiversity loss, cautioned the ADB.
“The roof of the world is melting,” warned Masatsugu Asakawa, president, ADB .
“The HKH region is critical to the well-being and economic security of more than a billion people across our region. This initiative will help equip Bhutan and Nepal with essential information and enable them to invest in effective climate adaptation—which is now critical to managing climate risk,” he explained.
The new study is included in ADB’s Climate Change Action Plan and it builds on the work of ADB and other partners on climate change and disaster risk management.
The region is warming faster than the global average. Eeven if the world limits global warming to 1.5 the temperature in the HKH region will rise by 1.8 causing the loss of at least one-third of its glacier volume.
More recent reports show that glacier loss in Bhutan and Nepal could reach 75 per cent by 2100 if global temperature rises reach 3.This will increase water stress, the frequency of hazards, and biodiversity loss, said the ADB note..
From 1985 to 2014, economic losses resulting from disasters in the HKH region totaled $45 billion, much higher than those of any other mountain region.
Since then, the increasing frequency and intensity of disaster events in the HKH have pushed up economic losses and the number of people killed or displaced by such events, according to the ADB.
Existing investments that depend on nature, such as hydropower critically important in Bhutan and Nepal are susceptible to the losses caused by events such as floods, droughts, and glacier melting. These losses can have harmful impacts on services and development outcomes and can result in stranded assets, said the ADB.