Verisk, a leading data analytics provider, as projected that the number of cases globally from the COVID-19 outbreak over the next four weeks may reach 50 million total cases, with 644,000 estimated deaths,based on low scenario estimates modeled by Verisk’s catastrophe modeling unit,AIR Worldwide.
COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus,was declared a pandemic on March 11 by the World Health Organization (WHO).
Forward projections and a breakdown of cases and deaths by country are provided in the Verisk COVID-19 Projection Tool(https://www.air-worldwide.com/models/life/verisk-covid-19-dashboard/). The modeled projections of the pandemic consider many variations in data availability and reliability, including underreporting for both cases and deaths, said a media advisory by the AIR-Worldwide on Wednesday..
According to the WHO, as of May 19, 2020, though there were 4,731,458 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 316,169 deaths worldwide, actual counts are likely to be substantively higher due to underreporting. As of the May 19 WHO report, the United States has 1,477,516 confirmed cases and 89,272 deaths after testing positive for the virus.
“Variance in publicly reported estimates stems from a number of factors, not the least of which are misreporting and underreporting of infections and deaths,” said Doug Fullam, director of life and health modeling, Verisk.
“Underreporting is driven by the fact that as much as 60-80 per cent of people infected with COVID-19 may exhibit no symptoms or only mild symptoms and, most likely, do not get tested. The cases of COVID-19 that are reported, therefore, represent at best only 20-40 per cent of the total population. Therefore, in all likelihood, underreporting is substantively higher. Testing more widely in the general population would lead to more accurate numbers of cases and deaths being reported. The projections from the Verisk COVID-19 Projection Tool account for underreporting.”
Verisk also announced that it has made the data behind the death projections easier to understand. Based on feedback received, Verisk now explicitly note that the Total Estimated Deaths shown in the tool include both those who have died and those who could die from COVID-19. Verisk updated the projection tool to explicitly display the impact of unreported, miscategorized, and forthcoming mortality.
All the information used in this analysis is derived from the AIR Pandemic Model, a stochastic modeling framework that can simulate the impact of a pandemic by age and sex for more than 10,000 tessels (similar to municipality).
For coronavirus pathogens, the AIR Pandemic Model estimates the cases on a daily basis, using an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) modeling framework. This framework allows AIR to more accurately model the disease dynamics, including but not limited to: travel patterns and restrictions; changes to mitigation efforts; introduction of pharmaceutical or nonpharmaceutical interventions; and impact on transmission due to changes in susceptible population. Specific to COVID-19 projection, AIR updates the estimated parameters frequently to develop near real-time forecasting.