“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors—some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it—driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season,” NOAA reported
Despite the fact that 2022 was a near-normal hurricane season in terms of number of storms, the economic and insured losses caused by Hurricane Ian led to it being the third costliest season on record
Atlantic hurricane season officially began recently, kicking off a disaster season that will run from June 1 through November 30.
According to predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2023 hurricane season will consist of 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes. This falls into a fairly average range, but “average” is a bit unusual under the conditions currently emerging around the season.
“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors—some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it—driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season,” NOAA reported.
Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University(CSU) notably marked the opening of the season with a revised forecast. After initially predicting slightly below-average hurricane activity in 2023, the researchers increased their estimates.
Now, CSU is essentially predicting an average hurricane season, but one that is above-average for what is expected to be an El Niño year.
The last three hurricane seasons have been controlled by La Niña, which typically leads to more hurricane activity.
While El Niño would typically help reduce such activity, current warmer water temperatures could ultimately cancel out most of that effect.
“While we anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic have continued to anomalously warm to near-record levels,” CSU researchers explained.
“El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.”
CSU anticipates 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which is right in line with the NOAA forecasts. However, CSU forecasters noted that this year’s outlook includes particular uncertainty due to these conflicting factors.
2022 hurricane season in review
Although the pre-season forecasts predicted an above-average season, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season turned out to be near-average, with 14 named storms, including eight hurricanes, two of which intensified to major hurricane status – Fiona and Ian.
An average hurricane season would typically see 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. This was the first near-average season since 2015.
One of the most outstanding features of the 2022 season was the rare mid-way pause between July and early September. This was driven by, among other factors, an excess of Saharan dust over the Main Development Region off the coast of Africa (leading to lower atmospheric moisture), increased vertical wind shear across the Caribbean Sea and central North Atlantic, and the propagation of the suppressed phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation across the basin, which favors warm, dry air and reduced rainfall.
All these factors contributed to a generally more stable atmosphere, which inhibited the formation of cyclones.
2022 hurricane season numbers in a nutshell
Despite the fact that 2022 was a near-normal hurricane season in terms of number of storms, the economic and insured losses caused by Hurricane Ian led to it being the third costliest season on record.
The activity during August was the lowest in the last 25 years. Since the satellite era began in 1960 there have been only three years with no named storms during August, namely 1961, 1997 and 2022.
It was the first time since 1941 that the Atlantic saw no named storm activity between July 3 and August 31.
For the seventh consecutive year, at least 14 named storms were formed. This was the first Atlantic hurricane season not classified as above-average since 2015.