Skymet, a weather forecasting and agriculture risk solution company, expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 94% ( with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the 4- month long period from June to September
New Delhi:
India is likely to receive normal monsoon rains in 2023, the state-run weather office said on Tuesday, the fifth straight year of normal or above normal summer rains that spur farm and overall economic growth in Asia’s third-biggest economy.
The rains, which usually lash the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1 and retreat by September, are expected to total 96% of the long-term average this year, M. Ravichandran, secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), told a news conference.
The India Meteorological Department defines average, or normal, rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.
However, Skymet, a weather forecasting and agriculture risk solution company, expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 94% ( with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the 4- month long period from June to September.
The spread of below normal being 90-95% of LPA.
In terms of geographical prospects, Skymet expects northern and central parts of the country to be at risk of being rain deficit. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August. Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, the agri bowl of North India, are likely to observe less than normal rains during the 2nd half of the season.
In its earlier foreshadow released on January 04,2023, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2023 to be sub-par and now retains the same.
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, ” Courtesy Triple-Dip-La Nina, southwest monsoon observed above normal/normal rainfall for the last 4 consecutive seasons. Now, La Nina has ended. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. Likelihood of El Nino is increasing and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon”.
Besides El Nino, there are other factors too influencing monsoon.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to steer monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Nino, when sufficiently strong. IOD is neutral now and is leaning to turn moderately positive at the start of monsoon. El Nino and IOD are likely to be ‘out of phase’ and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution.
Second half of the season is expected to be more aberrated.