The 2020s are set to be the Asian decade, with the continent dominating an exclusive list of economies expected to sustain growth rates of around 7 per cent.
India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Myanmar and the Philippines should all meet that benchmark, according to a research note Sunday from Madhur Jha, Standard Chartered’s India-based head of thematic research, and Global Chief Economist David Mann. Ethiopia and Côte d’Ivoire are also likely to reach the 7 per cent growth pace, which typically means a doubling of gross domestic product every 10 years. That’ll be a boon to per-capita incomes, with Vietnam’s soaring to $10,400 in 2030 from about $2,500 last year, they estimate.
The South Asian members of the group should be GDP standouts as they’ll together account for about one-fifth of the world’s population by 2030, Standard Chartered reckons. The demographic dividend will be a boon for India, while Bangladesh’s investments in health and education should juice productivity.
The Asian dominance of the list is a change from 2010, when the bank first started tracking the economies it expected to grow by around 7 per cent. Back then, there were 10 members evenly split between Asia and Africa: China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Mozambique.
China is a notable absence from the latest ranking after being a member of the club for almost four decades — reflecting both a slowdown in economic growth and a progression toward higher per-capita incomes that makes faster growth rates more difficult to sustain. Standard Chartered estimates the world’s No. 2 economy will keep up a 5.5 per cent economic growth pace in the 2020s.