Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide estimates that industry insured losses from the Camp Fire in Northern California will be between USD 6 billion and USD 9 billion. 


Taken together with the Woolsey fire in Southern California, AIR estimates that industry insured losses from these two California fires will be between USD 9 billion and USD 13 billion. Note that AIR’s estimate of insured losses are based on the assumption of nearly 100% take-up rates. AIR Worldwide is a Verisk business. 


The fact that damage from fire, including wildfire, is included in standard homeowners’ policies in California informs the assumption of nearly 100% take-up rates. The range of loss estimates is based on the modeled loss within the burn scar and reflects uncertainty in the payment of additional living expenses resulting from mandatory evacuations, loss of some individual structures outside of the most affected neighborhoods, extra expense and ordinance losses, as well as loss due to smoke, loss of electricity, and damage from suppression efforts.
AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates for the Camp Fire include:


Insured physical damage to property (residential, mobile home, and commercial), both structures and their contents, and auto
Direct business interruption losses
Demand surge—the estimated increase in costs of materials, services, and labor due to increased demand following a catastrophic event


The Camp Fire surpassed previous records to become both the deadliest and the most destructive single wildfire in California history. This vegetation fire ignited on November 8 near Camp Creek Road in Butte County and spread quickly due to low humidity, strong winds, and dry fuels. Just days after ignition, a representative from the International Association of Fire Fighters said, “[the town of] Paradise was literally wiped off the map.” Full containment was achieved on November 25.