China’s economy is projected to grow 4.5 per cent in 2027, marginally above the consensus estimate of 4.4 per cent. Exports are expected to support growth despite subdued domestic consumption and persistent challenges in the property sector.
New Delhi: The global economy is projected to grow 2.8 per cent in 2027, marginally higher than the estimated 2.7 per cent expansion in 2026, as easing energy prices and sustained investment in artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to offset tighter financial conditions, according to a Goldman Sachs Research report.
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist and Head of Research Jan Hatzius said the global economic outlook reflected changing growth drivers, particularly energy costs, technology investments and fiscal policy.
“We expect another year of solid but unremarkable GDP growth in 2027,” Hatzius said.
Among major emerging economies, India is projected to remain one of the fastest-growing, with its economy expected to expand by 7.2 per cent in 2027, compared with 7.9 per cent estimated for 2026. The forecast is higher than the consensus growth estimate of 6.8 per cent.
China’s economy is projected to grow 4.5 per cent in 2027, marginally above the consensus estimate of 4.4 per cent. Exports are expected to support growth despite subdued domestic consumption and persistent challenges in the property sector.
The investment bank expects the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom to record growth above market consensus estimates. South Korea and Taiwan are also expected to benefit from sustained global demand for AI-related exports.
Lower energy prices are likely to provide some support to global economic activity next year, following the drag they exerted on growth in 2026. Goldman Sachs commodity strategists expect Brent crude prices to decline to $78 per barrel by the end of 2027, accompanied by a moderation in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices.
The forecast factors in a continued adjustment in energy supplies from the Middle East. However, Europe is expected to face lingering pressure from elevated energy costs as earlier price increases continue to feed through to consumers.
AI-related investments are expected to remain another major contributor to global growth. Nominal investment in the sector is projected to increase to $1.8 trillion in 2027 from $1.1 trillion in 2026, driven largely by higher spending on hardware in the United States.
Goldman Sachs expects US hardware investment to rise by more than $500 billion, while AI investments are estimated to contribute 0.4 percentage points to global GDP growth in 2027.
In the United States, the contribution of AI investment to underlying GDP growth is projected at 0.6 percentage points after accounting for the statistical undercounting of semiconductor investments and related intellectual property exports.
However, the pace of growth in AI investments is expected to moderate, with the strongest year-on-year expansion likely during the first half of 2027.