El Niño is characterized by a warming of the Pacific Ocean that alters global weather patterns, which can damage crops and strain power grids. Even before the declaration, its impact has been felt across various regions, from a delayed start to the Indian monsoon to a temporary halt to Peru’s fishing season
El Niño has formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of droughts, floods and temperature fluctuations that will threaten communities worldwide along with agriculture and energy.
The climate phenomenon, identified by the Japan Meteorological Agency, is the first since 2023 — and could be one of the strongest on record. The El Niño event is expected to intensify in the coming months, and become very strong later in the year, persisting into at least December, according to the JMA.
El Niño is characterized by a warming of the Pacific Ocean that alters global weather patterns, which can damage crops and strain power grids. Even before the declaration, its impact has been felt across various regions, from a delayed start to the Indian monsoon to a temporary halt to Peru’s fishing season.
A powerful El Niño in 1997 killed at least 30,000 people and caused around $100 billion in damages worldwide. A 2023 study by Dartmouth College estimated the lingering fallout from El Niños can cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
The strength of an El Niño is determined by how much warmer the equatorial Pacific is compared to normal; an anomaly of 2C and above is considered to be a very strong event — or what’s informally known as a “Super El Niño.” Strong events have historically reduced yields for palm oil, coffee, cocoa, cotton and grains including wheat and rice, according to Marex.
Other impacts on weather around the world will likely spread and become more intense as El Niño reaches its peak in December or January. These may include a cooler, wetter winter across the southern US, and droughts and wildfires across parts of Australia.
The Atlantic hurricane season could also be impacted. Atmospheric changes associated with El Niño typically increase wind shear across the basin, making it harder for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop.
That doesn’t guarantee hurricanes and tropical storms won’t strike the US, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. Early forecasts from academic institutions, commercial forecasters and government agencies generally called for about 14 named storms this year, roughly in line with the long-term average.
What concerns many industry and weather observers is that this year’s El Niño may grow into a “super” event. For the US, El Niño is identified by monitoring the temperature levels in the Pacific Ocean, most commonly in a region known as Niño 3.4.
The threshold for El Niño used by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is when the sea surface temperature exceeds the long-term average by at least 0.5C (0.9F) for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.