“Our study published in the journal Science estimates 3 million COVID deaths in India until mid-2021 using three different databases,” Chinmay Tumbe, an assistant professor at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad who co-authored the study, told Reuters
New Delhi:
India’s death toll from COVID-19 crossed 500,000 on Friday, a level many health experts say was breached last year but obscured by inaccurate surveys and unaccounted dead in the hinterlands, where millions remain vulnerable to the disease.
The country, which has the fourth-highest tally of deaths globally, recorded 400,000 deaths by July last year after the devastating outbreak from the Delta variant of the coronavirus, according to official data. Some experts believe the figures were much higher.
“Our study published in the journal Science estimates 3 million COVID deaths in India until mid-2021 using three different databases,” Chinmay Tumbe, an assistant professor at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad who co-authored the study, told Reuters.
Last month, the Indian government dismissed the study as baseless in a notification saying there is a robust system of birth and death reporting. India’s states record deaths from COVID-19 after collating data from their districts.
In the last few months, several states have updated the number of deaths, some under pressure from the country’s top court. In most instances, authorities said there were lapses due to delayed registrations and other administrative errors.
India is currently in the midst of a third wave of the coronavirus led by the Omicron variant, which some top experts say is already in community transmission although federal officials say most cases are mild.
Last month, the government eased testing norms and told states to drop mandatory testing for contacts of confirmed cases unless they were old or battling other conditions. But, with the number of tests falling, the government issued a revised circular warning states they would miss the spread of the virus.
But, as many infected people took the option of not testing at all, total infection numbers may not reflect the extent and severity of cases, said Gautam Menon, a professor of physics and biology at Ashoka University near the capital who has been tracking the spread of the virus. According to official figures, India’s overall number of COVID-19 infections has reached 41.95 million, the second-highest globally behind the United States.
RECONCILIATION WITH TIME, GRIEF
India’s cumulative tally of 500,055 deaths on Friday included 1,072 fatalities reported over the last 24 hours, according to the federal health ministry. Out of this, 335 deaths were reported from the southern state of Kerala that has, for weeks, been updating data with deaths from last year.
Kerala, with less than 3% of India’s 1.35 billion population, accounts for nearly 11% of the total deaths reported in the country. “Some states such as Kerala are recording their backlog deaths under judicial pressure, although not all states have done that,” Menon said.
In Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, authorities have received over 100,000 claims for COVID-19 compensation, of which 87,000 claims have been approved, according to a senior government official. The number of claims received is nearly ten times the official COVID-19 death toll of 10,545, as per government data.
“There has not been any under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths…The policy for paying compensation is very liberal as per the Supreme Court’s directives, which is why the number of applicants is more than the COVID-19 deaths,” the official said.
Why is India seeing a rise in death rate despite low Covid cases?
While the active caseload has reported a marginal decline in India, the country is seeing a surge in deaths due to Covid-19.
A week back on January 26, India reported 2,85,914 fresh cases and 665 deaths in 24 hours. Since then, there has been a constant dip in new infections. However, the number of fatalities has risen steadily.
On February 3, the country saw 1,72,433 infections and 1,008 deaths in a span of 24 hours.
“Deaths lags about 2-3 weeks behind cases. It takes that much time for people to be severely ill, be hospitalised and managed there till they succumb to the disease,” Shahid Jameel, Visiting Professor, Ashoka University, told IANS.
India is currently going through its third Covid wave triggered mostly by the highly contagious Omicron variant.
Globally, Omicron accounts for about 70 per cent infections at this time, with Delta accounting for about 30 per cent.
The variant, touted as majorly causing mild illness, had initially led to a spike in Covid case numbers, but the number of Omicron cases have been much less in India.
“The third wave in India is also mostly driven by Omicron. The Omicron figures are much less than daily positive cases because the former is determined only after genomic sequencing, whereas the latter is based on PCR and rapid tests,” said Jameel, who is also Senior Research Fellow at Green Templeton College, Oxford University.
“Not all positive cases are sequenced to determine the variant virus,” he added.
India is expected to see a peak in the wave in early to mid-February.
“The peak will differ in different states and should eventually start to flatten by the end of March,” Dr. Kiran G. Kulirankal, from Division of Infectious Diseases, at Amrita Hospital, Kochi, told IANS.
However, it is too early to predict the end of Covid, he noted.
Kulirankal contended that although initial data shows Omicron variant to be highly transmissible but less severe than Delta, this is not the case while considering high risk groups.
It comprises the elderly, immunocompromised, patients with chronic kidney disease, chronic liver disease, uncontrolled diabetes, those on immunosuppressive medications and patients with malignancy.
“The weakened immune system fails to prevent the progression of the disease to its severe form leading to increased morbidity and mortality,” Kulirankal said.
He advised protecting the high-risk group as well as the general population with vaccinations and following proper Covid protocols such as hand washing, avoiding unnecessary travels, avoiding public gathering, and maintaining physical distancing.