“The market has been rallying because they’re looking to 2021 and saying we’re going to get past this and then things will get sort of back to normal,” said Sean O’Hara, president of Pacer ETF Distributors in Malvern, Pennsylvania.

“One thing that really could change the trajectory here would be if we have a big bounce in a second wave. That’s the big fear.”

“Trade in the automotive and energy sector collapsed while trade in agri-food products has been stable.”

Trade in developing countries appears to have taken a “nosedive” in April, falling faster relative to developed countries, it said. Imports into developing countries fell by 19% in April while their exports shrank by 18%, it said.

Testing the vaccine in older adults with be critical because this group is at higher risk for the most severe effects of the virus, and older adults typically have less efficient immune function. The midstage study is testing the safety and preliminary effectiveness of two doses of the vaccine given 28 days apart.

After playing down the virus’s potential impact just a few months ago, insurers have since declared large financial hits and warned of far worse to come. France’s AXA last month estimated that event cancellation claims alone would be in the “mid-triple-digit-million euros” and it was too early to predict the amount for business interruption. Germany’s Allianz said it suffered a 700 million-euro ($794 million) hit from the pandemic in the first quarter.

In India and Singapore where credit sales fell, overdue invoices still surged by 69% and 29% respectively. India’s decline in credit use might even be the result of its dramatic rise in overdues.Andreas Tesch, Chief Market Officer of Atradius, said: