A correction could be prompted by a deeper and longer recession than currently anticipated, a second wave of the virus or reinstated containment methods. A broadening of global social unrest in response to rising economic inequality could also damage investor sentiment, the IMF said.

“We worry about scarring in the economy, meaning the crisis might be longer than expected and deeper than expected,” said Adrian. “Scarring is due to the high level of unemployment and the potential for insolvency. These are difficult to reverse.”

Thursday’s estimate is roughly 10 times as many infections as the 2.3 million cases that have been confirmed. Officials have long known that millions of people were infected without knowing it and that many cases are being missed because of gaps in testing.

As countries around the world face the COVID-19 pandemic, the DRC Ebola response provides valuable lessons. Many of the public health measures that have been successful in stopping Ebola are the same measures that are now essential for stopping COVID-19: finding, isolating, testing, and caring for every case and relentless contact tracing. 

The IMF on Tuesday forecast a deeper global recession than initially anticipated, as business closures, travel restrictions and social distancing measures persist in most countries. It now anticipates a global GDP contraction of 4.9% this year and a total output loss of $12 trillion through the end of 2021