For the year as whole, Bloomberg Economics forecasts growth of 6.9%, the quickest in records dating back to the 1960s. Behind the buoyant outlook: a shrinking virus threat, expanding US stimulus, and trillions of dollars in pent-up savings.

Much will depend on how fast countries can inoculate their populations with the risk that the longer it takes the greater the chance the virus remains an international threat especially if new variants develop. Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker shows while the US has administered doses equivalent to almost a quarter of its people, the European Union has yet to hit 10% and rates in Mexico, Russia and Brazil are less than 6%.